Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Talita Alencar vs Julia Polastri
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Talita Alencar
Julia Polastri
40%
60%
Why
58"
Reach
Δ 4"
63"
36
Age
Δ 7y
28
9-1-1
Career record
Δ 10 pp
15-6
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alencar: 60 sig / 3 TD ·
Polastri: 78 sig / 0 TD
Talita Alencar
Julia Polastri
52
Sig strikes landed
55
138
Sig strikes attempted
129
97
Total strikes landed
85
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
8.2
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
293s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Talita Alencar
"Problem Child"
9-1-1
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
59"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Ona…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
Blue corner
W1
Julia Polastri
"Psycho"
15-6
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—