Prelims1
Lightweight
Mateusz Gamrot vs Esteban Ribovics
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
·Kaseya Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mateusz Gamrot
Esteban Ribovics
70%
30%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
35
Age
Δ 5y
30
26-5
Career record
Δ 0 pp
16-3
L1
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Gamrot: 18 sig / 4 TD ·
Ribovics: 4 sig / 0 TD
Mateusz Gamrot
Esteban Ribovics
67
Sig strikes landed
52
157
Sig strikes attempted
123
87
Total strikes landed
70
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.2
9.9
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
221s
Control time
31s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mateusz Gamrot
"Gamer"
26-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. G…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
L
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—
Blue corner
W1
Esteban Ribovics
"El Gringo"
16-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—
W
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—