Back to UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Prelims1 Catch Weight

John Castaneda vs Mark Vologdin

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott ·Canada Life Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
John Castaneda
Mark Vologdin
57% 43%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 6"
65"
34
Age
Δ 8y
26
L2
Current streak
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8
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Castaneda: 135 sig / 0 TD · Vologdin: 91 sig / 1 TD
John Castaneda
Mark Vologdin
53
Sig strikes landed
42
104
Sig strikes attempted
81
75
Total strikes landed
57
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
148s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

John Castaneda

"Sexi Mexi"
21-9-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database 8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
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L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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W UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
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W UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
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L UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
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Blue corner

Mark Vologdin

0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26