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Main Welterweight

Gilbert Burns vs Mike Malott

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott ·Canada Life Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Gilbert Burns
Mike Malott
47% 53%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
40
Age
Δ 5y
34
22-11
Career record
Δ 17 pp
15-2-1
L4
Current streak
W3
24
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Burns: 40 sig / 0 TD · Malott: 56 sig / 0 TD
Gilbert Burns
Mike Malott
34
Sig strikes landed
47
58
Sig strikes attempted
85
51
Total strikes landed
66
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
133s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L4

Gilbert Burns

"Durinho"
22-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database 24 fights · 15-9
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Mora…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
L UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
L UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
Blue corner
W3

Mike Malott

"Proper"
15-2-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. …
—
W UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Alb…
—
L UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
W UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—