Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Renato Moicano
Chris Duncan
56%
44%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
37
Age
Δ 4y
33
21-8-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
16-3
L2
Current streak
W4
19
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Moicano: 21 sig / 1 TD ·
Duncan: 27 sig / 0 TD
Renato Moicano
Chris Duncan
50
Sig strikes landed
46
100
Sig strikes attempted
94
57
Total strikes landed
60
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
114s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Renato Moicano
21-8-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
19 fights · 12-7
Last 5
L
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
L
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—
Blue corner
W4
Chris Duncan
"The Problem"
16-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—