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Main Women's Strawweight

Shi Ming vs Bruna Brasil

UFC - Road to UFC 4.6 ·Shanghai Indoor Arena

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Shi Ming
Bruna Brasil
80% 20%
Why
60"
Reach
Δ 6"
66"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
19-6
Career record
Δ 21 pp
11-8-1
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ming: 32 sig / 2 TD · Brasil: 31 sig / 1 TD
Shi Ming
Bruna Brasil
38
Sig strikes landed
36
91
Sig strikes attempted
78
67
Total strikes landed
51
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
205s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Shi Ming

19-6
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
60"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figuei…
Blue corner
L1

Bruna Brasil

11-8-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
W UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
W UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
L UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…