Main
Middleweight
Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Israel Adesanya
Joe Pyfer
58%
42%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
37
Age
Δ 7y
30
24-7
Career record
Δ 8 pp
17-3
L3
Current streak
W3
18
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Adesanya: 42 sig / 0 TD ·
Pyfer: 36 sig / 2 TD
Israel Adesanya
Joe Pyfer
62
Sig strikes landed
56
106
Sig strikes attempted
124
63
Total strikes landed
66
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
54s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Israel Adesanya
"The Last Stylebender"
24-7
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
37
In our database
18 fights · 13-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—
L
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
L
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
Blue corner
W3
Joe Pyfer
"Bodybagz"
17-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
—
W
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—