Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mason Jones
Axel Sola
65%
35%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
31
Age
Δ 2y
28
19-2
Career record
Δ 5 pp
12-1-1
W2
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jones: 110 sig / 0 TD ·
Sola: 65 sig / 3 TD
Mason Jones
Axel Sola
52
Sig strikes landed
58
119
Sig strikes attempted
140
70
Total strikes landed
70
1.0
Takedowns landed
2.0
3.8
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
112s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mason Jones
"The Dragon"
19-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
Blue corner
W1
Axel Sola
12-1-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
—