Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Emmett
Kevin Vallejos
20%
80%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
41
Age
Δ 17y
24
19-8
Career record
Δ 25 pp
19-1
L2
Current streak
W3
16
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Emmett: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Vallejos: 36 sig / 0 TD
Josh Emmett
Kevin Vallejos
55
Sig strikes landed
81
155
Sig strikes attempted
156
66
Total strikes landed
80
0.5
Takedowns landed
4.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.80
69s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Josh Emmett
19-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
L
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
—
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
L
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
W3
Kevin Vallejos
"El Chino"
19-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Switch
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
—