Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marwan Rahiki
Harry Hardwick
71%
29%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
24
Age
Δ 8y
32
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Rahiki: 90 sig / 0 TD ·
Hardwick: 65 sig / 0 TD
Marwan Rahiki
Harry Hardwick
39
Sig strikes landed
25
73
Sig strikes attempted
60
69
Total strikes landed
42
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
176s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Marwan Rahiki
"Freaky"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
L1
Harry Hardwick
"Houdini"
13-6-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Bor…
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