Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Brandon Moreno
Lone'er Kavanagh
62%
38%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
32
Age
Δ 6y
27
23-11-2
Career record
Δ 19 pp
10-2
L1
Current streak
L1
19
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Moreno: 79 sig / 0 TD ·
Kavanagh: 97 sig / 0 TD
Brandon Moreno
Lone'er Kavanagh
65
Sig strikes landed
61
147
Sig strikes attempted
129
86
Total strikes landed
77
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
162s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
23-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
19 fights · 11-6
Last 5
L
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Alb…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
L
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
Blue corner
L1
Lone'er Kavanagh
10-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figuei…
—