Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Marlon Vera
David Martinez
43%
57%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
33
Age
Δ 6y
28
23-13-1
Career record
Δ 32 pp
15-1
L3
Current streak
W2
25
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Vera: 42 sig / 0 TD ·
Martinez: 71 sig / 2 TD
Marlon Vera
David Martinez
67
Sig strikes landed
59
140
Sig strikes attempted
114
73
Total strikes landed
79
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
56s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
23-13-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
25 fights · 15-10
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
Blue corner
W2
David Martinez
15-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—