Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Edgar Chairez
Felipe Bunes
73%
27%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
14-6
Career record
Δ 12 pp
14-10
W1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Chairez: 66 sig / 0 TD ·
Bunes: 54 sig / 1 TD
Edgar Chairez
Felipe Bunes
37
Sig strikes landed
30
72
Sig strikes attempted
58
47
Total strikes landed
43
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
88s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Edgar Chairez
"Puro Chicali"
14-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
L
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
L
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
Blue corner
L1
Felipe Bunes
"Felipinho"
14-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—