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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Muin Gafurov vs Jakub Wiklacz

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Muin Gafurov
Jakub Wiklacz
48% 52%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
30
Age
Δ 0y
29
21-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
19-3-2
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Gafurov: 79 sig / 2 TD · Wiklacz: 56 sig / 0 TD
Muin Gafurov
Jakub Wiklacz
31
Sig strikes landed
46
77
Sig strikes attempted
86
47
Total strikes landed
63
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.4
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
172s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Muin Gafurov

"Tajik"
21-7
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
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W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
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L UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
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L UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
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Blue corner
W1

Jakub Wiklacz

19-3-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
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