Main
Bantamweight
Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mario Bautista
Vinicius Oliveira
41%
59%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
33
Age
Δ 2y
30
17-4
Career record
Δ 5 pp
24-4
L1
Current streak
W4
13
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Bautista: 15 sig / 5 TD ·
Oliveira: 12 sig / 0 TD
Mario Bautista
Vinicius Oliveira
65
Sig strikes landed
62
151
Sig strikes attempted
140
88
Total strikes landed
81
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.7
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
66s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
79%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mario Bautista
17-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
L
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Mall…
—
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
Blue corner
W4
Vinicius Oliveira
"LokDog"
24-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—