Back to UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Prelims1 Flyweight

Alden Coria vs Luis Gurule

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez ·Toyota Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Alden Coria
Luis Gurule
74% 26%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
64"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
13-3
Career record
Δ 12 pp
11-5
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Coria: 79 sig / 1 TD · Gurule: 50 sig / 1 TD
Alden Coria
Luis Gurule
48
Sig strikes landed
32
107
Sig strikes attempted
81
71
Total strikes landed
44
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.6
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
188s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Alden Coria

"Cobra"
13-3 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
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Blue corner
L2

Luis Gurule

"Grim"
11-5
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
L UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
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