Back to UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
Prelims1 Welterweight

Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 ·Qudos Bank Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Jonathan Micallef
Oban Elliott
63% 37%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 5"
72"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
11-1
Career record
Δ 21 pp
12-5
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Micallef: 19 sig / 1 TD · Elliott: 40 sig / 0 TD
Jonathan Micallef
Oban Elliott
57
Sig strikes landed
60
120
Sig strikes attempted
138
59
Total strikes landed
69
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
0.3
Takedowns attempted
6.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
58s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Jonathan Micallef

"The Captain"
11-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
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Blue corner
L1

Oban Elliott

"The Welsh Gangster"
12-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rount…
—
W UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
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W UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—