Back to UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
🏆 Title fight Main Featherweight

Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 ·Qudos Bank Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Alexander Volkanovski
Diego Lopes
66% 34%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
37
Age
Δ 6y
31
29-4
Career record
Δ 10 pp
28-8
W1
Current streak
W1
17
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Volkanovski: 98 sig / 2 TD · Lopes: 70 sig / 2 TD
Alexander Volkanovski
Diego Lopes
101
Sig strikes landed
85
153
Sig strikes attempted
200
135
Total strikes landed
104
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
7.0
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
216s
Control time
37s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Alexander Volkanovski

"The Great"
29-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 17 fights · 14-3
Last 5
W UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
L UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
L UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
L UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
W1

Diego Lopes

28-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
—
L UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—