Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Brandon Royval
Manel Kape
43%
57%
Why
68"
Reach
68"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
17-10
Career record
Δ 14 pp
23-7
L1
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Royval: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Kape: 17 sig / 0 TD
Brandon Royval
Manel Kape
67
Sig strikes landed
78
164
Sig strikes attempted
149
69
Total strikes landed
77
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
29s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brandon Royval
"Raw Dawg"
17-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
Blue corner
W2
Manel Kape
"StarBoy"
23-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almab…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—