Main
Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan vs Marco Tulio
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Christian Leroy Duncan
Marco Tulio
58%
42%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
15-2
Career record
Δ 5 pp
15-3
W2
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Duncan: 23 sig / 1 TD ·
Tulio: 27 sig / 2 TD
Christian Leroy Duncan
Marco Tulio
52
Sig strikes landed
42
126
Sig strikes attempted
87
59
Total strikes landed
47
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.7
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
103s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Christian Leroy Duncan
"CLD"
15-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. He…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
L
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
Blue corner
W2
Marco Tulio
"Matuto"
15-3
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—