Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Chris Padilla
Ismael Bonfim
53%
47%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
18-6-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
20-7
W3
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Padilla: 64 sig / 0 TD ·
Bonfim: 42 sig / 1 TD
Chris Padilla
Ismael Bonfim
40
Sig strikes landed
42
97
Sig strikes attempted
88
50
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
138s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Chris Padilla
"Taco"
18-6-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
Blue corner
L1
Ismael Bonfim
"Marreta"
20-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—