Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Schnell
Joseph Morales
32%
68%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
36
Age
Δ 5y
31
18-10
Career record
Δ 25 pp
16-2
W1
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Schnell: 4 sig / 1 TD ·
Morales: 5 sig / 0 TD
Matt Schnell
Joseph Morales
33
Sig strikes landed
34
69
Sig strikes attempted
77
40
Total strikes landed
51
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.9
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
60s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
18-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
15 fights · 7-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
Blue corner
W1
Joseph Morales
"Bopo"
16-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—