Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gabriel Bonfim
Randy Brown
78%
22%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
28
Age
Δ 7y
35
20-1
Career record
Δ 23 pp
21-8
W3
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
20
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Bonfim: 35 sig / 0 TD ·
Brown: 33 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Bonfim
Randy Brown
46
Sig strikes landed
48
99
Sig strikes attempted
106
61
Total strikes landed
64
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
184s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Gabriel Bonfim
"Marretinha"
20-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Randy Brown
"Rudeboy"
21-8
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
20 fights · 14-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
—
L
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—