Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Donte Johnson
Sedriques Dumas
67%
33%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
79"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Johnson: 10 sig / 3 TD ·
Dumas: 5 sig / 1 TD
Donte Johnson
Sedriques Dumas
27
Sig strikes landed
27
44
Sig strikes attempted
52
69
Total strikes landed
45
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
153s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Donte Johnson
"Lock Jaw"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner
L1
Sedriques Dumas
"The Reaper"
10-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
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W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
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