Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Talita Alencar vs Ariane Carnelossi
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Talita Alencar
Ariane Carnelossi
43%
57%
Why
58"
Reach
Δ 3"
62"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
9-1-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
16-4
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Alencar: 60 sig / 5 TD ·
Carnelossi: 25 sig / 0 TD
Talita Alencar
Ariane Carnelossi
39
Sig strikes landed
41
98
Sig strikes attempted
95
63
Total strikes landed
74
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
208s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Talita Alencar
"Problem Child"
9-1-1
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
59"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
Blue corner
W1
Ariane Carnelossi
"Sorriso"
16-4
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—