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Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Alice Ardelean vs Montserrat Conejo Ruiz

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Alice Ardelean
Montserrat Conejo Ruiz
60% 40%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 1"
61"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
13-7
Career record
Δ 3 pp
10-6
W1
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ardelean: 138 sig / 1 TD · Ruiz: 85 sig / 1 TD
Alice Ardelean
Montserrat Conejo Ruiz
34
Sig strikes landed
56
93
Sig strikes attempted
107
78
Total strikes landed
76
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.4
Takedowns attempted
5.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
170s
Control time
252s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Alice Ardelean

13-7
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
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L UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
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L UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
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Blue corner
L3

Montserrat Conejo Ruiz

10-6
Career record
Height
60"
Reach
61"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
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L UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
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L UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
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