Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Steve Garcia
David Onama
61%
39%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
20-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
15-3
W6
Current streak
W4
9
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Garcia: 33 sig / 0 TD ·
Onama: 2 sig / 0 TD
Steve Garcia
David Onama
43
Sig strikes landed
41
104
Sig strikes attempted
90
53
Total strikes landed
55
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
75s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Steve Garcia
"Mean Machine"
20-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
Blue corner
W4
David Onama
15-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
—
W
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—