Back to UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Main Welterweight

Jack Hermansson vs Myktybek Orolbai

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker ·ABHA Arena
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Jack Hermansson
Myktybek Orolbai
40% 60%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
38
Age
Δ 10y
28
24-11
Career record
Δ 16 pp
17-2-1
L1
Current streak
W1
18
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hermansson: 19 sig / 0 TD · Orolbai: 15 sig / 0 TD
Jack Hermansson
Myktybek Orolbai
53
Sig strikes landed
51
99
Sig strikes attempted
104
73
Total strikes landed
73
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
89s
Control time
248s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jack Hermansson

"The Joker"
24-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 18 fights · 11-7
Last 5
L UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1

Myktybek Orolbai

17-2-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rount…
—
L UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
W UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—