Main
Welterweight
Belal Muhammad vs Ian Machado Garry
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
·ABHA Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Belal Muhammad
Ian Machado Garry
51%
49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
37
Age
Δ 9y
28
24-6
Career record
Δ 15 pp
18-1
L1
Current streak
W1
20
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Muhammad: 56 sig / 0 TD ·
Machado Garry: 72 sig / 0 TD
Belal Muhammad
Ian Machado Garry
67
Sig strikes landed
73
125
Sig strikes attempted
147
79
Total strikes landed
94
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
7.8
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
159s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
24-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
20 fights · 15-4
Last 5
L
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
Blue corner
W1
Ian Machado Garry
"The Future"
18-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
10 fights · 9-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
—
L
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—