Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Arman Tsarukyan
Dan Hooker
85%
15%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
29
Age
Δ 7y
36
24-3
Career record
Δ 25 pp
25-14
W4
Current streak
W3
11
UFC fights in our DB
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Tsarukyan: 42 sig / 2 TD ·
Hooker: 10 sig / 0 TD
Arman Tsarukyan
Dan Hooker
67
Sig strikes landed
55
139
Sig strikes attempted
108
99
Total strikes landed
72
2.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.2
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
272s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Arman Tsarukyan
"Ahalkalakets"
24-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
Blue corner
W3
Dan Hooker
"The Hangman"
25-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
36
In our database
22 fights · 14-8
Last 5
W
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—