🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jack Della Maddalena
Islam Makhachev
42%
58%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
19-4
Career record
Δ 14 pp
29-1
W8
Current streak
W8
8
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Della Maddalena: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Makhachev: 30 sig / 4 TD
Jack Della Maddalena
Islam Makhachev
46
Sig strikes landed
47
91
Sig strikes attempted
85
67
Total strikes landed
66
-0.3
Takedowns landed
2.7
-0.5
Takedowns attempted
7.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
-10s
Control time
286s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Jack Della Maddalena
19-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 8-0
Last 5
W
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
W8
Islam Makhachev
29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
17 fights · 16-1
Last 5
W
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—