Back to UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
🏆 Title fight Main Welterweight

Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev ·Madison Square Garden

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Jack Della Maddalena
Islam Makhachev
42% 58%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
19-4
Career record
Δ 14 pp
29-1
W8
Current streak
W8
8
UFC fights in our DB
17

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Della Maddalena: 18 sig / 0 TD · Makhachev: 30 sig / 4 TD
Jack Della Maddalena
Islam Makhachev
46
Sig strikes landed
47
91
Sig strikes attempted
85
67
Total strikes landed
66
-0.3
Takedowns landed
2.7
-0.5
Takedowns attempted
7.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
-10s
Control time
286s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W8

Jack Della Maddalena

19-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database 8 fights · 8-0
Last 5
W UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
W UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
W UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
W UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
W UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
Blue corner
W8

Islam Makhachev

29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 17 fights · 16-1
Last 5
W UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
W UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
W UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
W UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
W UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev