Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rashid Vagabov
Paulo Henrique
76%
24%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
27
Age
Δ 4y
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Vagabov: 28 sig / 3 TD ·
Henrique: 14 sig / 0 TD
Rashid Vagabov
Paulo Henrique
45
Sig strikes landed
48
97
Sig strikes attempted
101
62
Total strikes landed
64
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
165s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rashid Vagabov
"Rambo"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Paulo Henrique
"PH"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Age
23