Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafael Tobias
Jair De Oliveira
93%
7%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
70"
22
Age
Δ 7y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Tobias: 13 sig / 1 TD ·
De Oliveira: 15 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Tobias
Jair De Oliveira
47
Sig strikes landed
38
109
Sig strikes attempted
87
71
Total strikes landed
54
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.7
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
122s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rafael Tobias
"Bipolar"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
Jair De Oliveira
"Mamute"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Age
29