Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Djani Barbir
Mantas Kondratavicius
52%
48%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Barbir: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Kondratavicius: 5 sig / 1 TD
Djani Barbir
Mantas Kondratavicius
36
Sig strikes landed
35
76
Sig strikes attempted
74
48
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
106s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Djani Barbir
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Mantas Kondratavicius
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26