Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Raphael Uchegbu
Cody Chovancek
52%
48%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 6"
68"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Uchegbu: 25 sig / 1 TD ·
Chovancek: 29 sig / 0 TD
Raphael Uchegbu
Cody Chovancek
36
Sig strikes landed
36
77
Sig strikes attempted
74
53
Total strikes landed
74
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
111s
Control time
172s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Raphael Uchegbu
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Cody Chovancek
"The Best Fisherman in MMA"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Switch
Age
27