Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Anthony Guarascio
Steven Asplund
42%
58%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
32
Age
Δ 4y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Guarascio: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Asplund: 11 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Guarascio
Steven Asplund
28
Sig strikes landed
34
58
Sig strikes attempted
68
36
Total strikes landed
49
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.2
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
150s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Anthony Guarascio
"The Daywalker"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Steven Asplund
"Concrete"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27