Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tommy McMillen
David Mgoyan
59%
41%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
28
Age
Δ 6y
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
McMillen: 113 sig / 0 TD ·
Mgoyan: 85 sig / 2 TD
Tommy McMillen
David Mgoyan
37
Sig strikes landed
34
75
Sig strikes attempted
68
76
Total strikes landed
46
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
143s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Tommy McMillen
"Gun"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
David Mgoyan
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21