Back to UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen
Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Melissa Croden vs Tainara Lisboa

UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen ·Rogers Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Melissa Croden
Tainara Lisboa
62% 38%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
34
Age
Δ 0y
35
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Croden: 99 sig / 2 TD · Lisboa: 42 sig / 2 TD
Melissa Croden
Tainara Lisboa
29
Sig strikes landed
26
57
Sig strikes attempted
60
58
Total strikes landed
52
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.6
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
147s
Control time
211s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
28%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Melissa Croden

"Scare"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
Blue corner
L1

Tainara Lisboa

"Thai Panther"
7-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
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