Main
Middleweight
Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen
·Rogers Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Reinier de Ridder
Brendan Allen
50%
50%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
35
Age
Δ 5y
30
22-4
Career record
Δ 5 pp
27-7
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 4
de Ridder: 9 sig / 3 TD ·
Allen: 22 sig / 1 TD
Reinier de Ridder
Brendan Allen
41
Sig strikes landed
39
87
Sig strikes attempted
75
62
Total strikes landed
53
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
190s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Reinier de Ridder
"RdR"
22-4
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—
Blue corner
W1
Brendan Allen
"All In"
27-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
17 fights · 13-4
Last 5
W
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—