Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Marlon Vera
Aiemann Zahabi
64%
36%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
33
Age
Δ 5y
38
23-13-1
Career record
Δ 26 pp
15-2
L2
Current streak
W6
24
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Vera: 56 sig / 0 TD ·
Zahabi: 81 sig / 0 TD
Marlon Vera
Aiemann Zahabi
74
Sig strikes landed
63
162
Sig strikes attempted
128
88
Total strikes landed
84
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.70
Knockdowns
0.30
76s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
23-13-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
24 fights · 15-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
W6
Aiemann Zahabi
"Icemann"
15-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Mad…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Alb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—