Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Azat Maksum
Mitch Raposo
72%
28%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
64"
31
Age
Δ 4y
27
15-4
Career record
Δ 8 pp
10-4
L2
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maksum: 19 sig / 7 TD ·
Raposo: 30 sig / 0 TD
Azat Maksum
Mitch Raposo
41
Sig strikes landed
38
99
Sig strikes attempted
92
68
Total strikes landed
54
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.4
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
175s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Azat Maksum
"Qazaq"
15-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rount…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
Blue corner
L2
Mitch Raposo
10-4
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
L
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—