🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Magomed Ankalaev
Alex Pereira
83%
17%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
79"
33
Age
Δ 5y
38
22-2-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
13-4
W3
Current streak
L1
15
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ankalaev: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Pereira: 28 sig / 0 TD
Magomed Ankalaev
Alex Pereira
64
Sig strikes landed
63
125
Sig strikes attempted
113
81
Total strikes landed
67
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.1
5.9
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
195s
Control time
8s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Magomed Ankalaev
22-2-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
15 fights · 12-1
Last 5
W
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
D
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Alex Pereira
"Poatan"
13-4
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
L
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—