Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Brandon Holmes
Cam Rowston
40%
60%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
28
Age
Δ 2y
31
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Holmes: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Rowston: 26 sig / 1 TD
Brandon Holmes
Cam Rowston
38
Sig strikes landed
36
74
Sig strikes attempted
72
46
Total strikes landed
49
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
123s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Brandon Holmes
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
L1
Cam Rowston
15-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 8.2
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