Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Chris Ewert
Yuri Panferov
51%
49%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ewert: 51 sig / 0 TD ·
Panferov: 65 sig / 4 TD
Chris Ewert
Yuri Panferov
33
Sig strikes landed
27
58
Sig strikes attempted
54
47
Total strikes landed
42
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
120s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chris Ewert
"El Tanke"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
L1
Yuri Panferov
"The Russian Polar Bear"
9-2
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 7.10
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