Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Miles Johns
Jean Matsumoto
33%
67%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
31
Age
Δ 6y
26
15-6
Career record
Δ 14 pp
17-3
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Johns: 83 sig / 5 TD ·
Matsumoto: 95 sig / 0 TD
Miles Johns
Jean Matsumoto
46
Sig strikes landed
52
111
Sig strikes attempted
119
60
Total strikes landed
77
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
93s
Control time
187s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Miles Johns
"Chapo"
15-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jean Matsumoto
17-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—