Back to UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Uran Satybaldiev vs Diyar Nurgozhay

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang ·Shanghai Indoor Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Uran Satybaldiev
Diyar Nurgozhay
52% 48%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
9-2
Career record
Δ 3 pp
11-3
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Satybaldiev: 2 sig / 0 TD · Nurgozhay: 7 sig / 1 TD
Uran Satybaldiev
Diyar Nurgozhay
37
Sig strikes landed
35
76
Sig strikes attempted
74
53
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
138s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Uran Satybaldiev

"Gorilla"
9-2
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Mur…
—
Blue corner
L1

Diyar Nurgozhay

11-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
—