Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Alibi Idiris
Joseph Morales
45%
55%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Idiris: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Morales: 29 sig / 2 TD
Alibi Idiris
Joseph Morales
35
Sig strikes landed
29
62
Sig strikes attempted
65
45
Total strikes landed
49
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
134s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Alibi Idiris
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
L2
Joseph Morales
"Bopo"
15-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
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L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
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