Prelims1
Lightweight
Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chase Hooper
Alexander Hernandez
75%
25%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
26
Age
Δ 7y
33
17-5-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
19-9
W5
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hooper: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Hernandez: 17 sig / 0 TD
Chase Hooper
Alexander Hernandez
57
Sig strikes landed
51
127
Sig strikes attempted
100
72
Total strikes landed
55
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
196s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Chase Hooper
"The Dream"
17-5-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
W2
Alexander Hernandez
"El Gran Chango"
19-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
15 fights · 8-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—