Back to UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Prelims2 Women's Flyweight

Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 ·Smoothie King Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Carli Judice
Nicolle Caliari
59% 41%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 6"
62"
26
Age
Δ 2y
29
7-2
Career record
Δ 13 pp
9-5
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Judice: 109 sig / 0 TD · Caliari: 32 sig / 1 TD
Carli Judice
Nicolle Caliari
101
Sig strikes landed
65
176
Sig strikes attempted
148
98
Total strikes landed
93
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.8
0.5
Takedowns attempted
5.9
0.20
Knockdowns
-0.10
52s
Control time
233s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Carli Judice

"Crispy"
7-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Do…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
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Blue corner
L1

Nicolle Caliari

9-5
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—