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Main Welterweight

Shogo Sato vs Kitt Campbell

Road to UFC 4.3 + 4.4 ·UFC Performance Institute Shanghai
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Shogo Sato
Kitt Campbell
42% 58%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 8"
74"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Sato: 2 sig / 0 TD · Campbell: 24 sig / 0 TD
Shogo Sato
Kitt Campbell
32
Sig strikes landed
42
60
Sig strikes attempted
84
42
Total strikes landed
54
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
122s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Shogo Sato

"Tora"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
Blue corner

Kitt Campbell

"The Killer"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31